FIRE Calculator: When Can You Retire Early?
Enter your current age, existing savings, annual expenses, annual savings rate, expected investment return, and chosen withdrawal rate. The calculator finds your FIRE number — the portfolio size that sustains your spending indefinitely — then simulates year-by-year growth until your portfolio crosses that threshold, showing you exactly how many years remain and what age you reach financial independence.
Financial independence at
50
20 years from now
FIRE number
$1.00M
Years to FIRE
20
Portfolio trajectory
Year-by-year breakdown
| Year | Age | Portfolio |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 31 | $73,500.00 |
| 2 | 32 | $98,645.00 |
| 3 | 33 | $125,550.15 |
| 4 | 34 | $154,338.66 |
| 5 | 35 | $185,142.37 |
| 6 | 36 | $218,102.33 |
| 7 | 37 | $253,369.50 |
| 8 | 38 | $291,105.36 |
| 9 | 39 | $331,482.74 |
| 10 | 40 | $374,686.53 |
| 11 | 41 | $420,914.58 |
| 12 | 42 | $470,378.60 |
| 13 | 43 | $523,305.11 |
| 14 | 44 | $579,936.46 |
| 15 | 45 | $640,532.02 |
| 16 | 46 | $705,369.26 |
| 17 | 47 | $774,745.11 |
| 18 | 48 | $848,977.26 |
| 19 | 49 | $928,405.67 |
| 20 | 50 | $1,013,394.07 |
How it works
Your FIRE number is derived from the safe withdrawal rate (SWR): divide your annual expenses by your withdrawal rate percentage. At the historically popular 4% rate, the math gives you 25× your yearly spending as the target portfolio. The 4% rule comes from the 1994 Trinity Study, which found that a 50/50 stock-bond portfolio survived 30-year retirements in over 95% of historical periods — but it is a rule of thumb, not a guarantee. Longer retirements, higher stock allocations, and current valuations all affect how safe any particular rate actually is.
Spending less counts double in the FIRE equation. Cutting annual expenses by $10,000 does two things simultaneously: it reduces your FIRE number (you need 25× less target) and increases your annual savings (more money accumulates each year). This compounding effect on both sides of the equation is why high savings rates tend to compress timelines far more dramatically than modest tweaks to expected returns.
Sequence-of-returns risk is the biggest real-world caveat this calculator cannot capture. A market crash in the first few years of retirement can permanently impair a portfolio even if the long-run average return is fine — because withdrawals are selling shares at low prices. This tool uses a constant annual return, which smooths out that volatility. Run scenarios with conservative return assumptions (3–5% real) and consider that a flexible spending plan or part-time income can provide significant buffer against bad early sequences.
Frequently asked questions
Is the 4% rule safe?+
It depends on your time horizon and portfolio composition. The original Trinity Study covered 30-year retirements with a 50% stock / 50% bond mix. Many FIRE practitioners target 40- or 50-year retirements, where the data is thinner and a 3–3.5% withdrawal rate is often considered more conservative. Some researchers argue that today's lower expected bond returns and higher equity valuations make even 4% optimistic. There is no universally safe number — use this calculator to explore scenarios, and treat the result as a planning estimate, not a promise.
Does this include Social Security or pension income?+
No. By design, the calculator is conservative: it assumes your portfolio must cover 100% of expenses. If you expect Social Security, a pension, or other guaranteed income in retirement, subtract that annual amount from your annualExpenses input before running the calculation. This gives a more accurate FIRE number for the gap your portfolio must fill, which is often significantly smaller than total spending.
What return rate should I assume?+
That depends on whether you want nominal or real (inflation-adjusted) figures. Historically, a diversified stock portfolio has returned roughly 10% nominal or 7% real (after ~3% inflation) in the US. If you use a real return (say 5–7%) and your expenses are in today's dollars, your results are already inflation-adjusted — the fireAge and yearsToFire reflect purchasing power in today's money. If you use a nominal return, your expenses should also be in nominal future-dollars, which makes the inputs harder to reason about. Using real returns with today's expense figures is generally the cleaner approach for long-horizon planning.