SaaS MRR Growth Projection Calculator
Enter your current Monthly Recurring Revenue, the new MRR you expect to add each month, your monthly churn rate, and any expansion revenue rate. The calculator compounds net growth month by month — using the formula MRRₙ = MRRₙ₋₁ × (1 − churn + expansion) + new MRR — and projects your ARR trajectory. Set an optional target MRR to see exactly how many months until you reach that milestone.
MRR after 12 months
$17.1k
+71.4% from starting MRR
ARR
$205.7k
MRR growth
+71.4%
Time to $25.0k MRR
Not reached in 12 months
MRR trajectory
Month-by-month breakdown
| Month | MRR | ARR |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | $10,700.00 | $128,400.00 |
| 2 | $11,379.00 | $136,548.00 |
| 3 | $12,037.63 | $144,451.56 |
| 4 | $12,676.50 | $152,118.00 |
| 5 | $13,296.21 | $159,554.52 |
| 6 | $13,897.32 | $166,767.84 |
| 7 | $14,480.40 | $173,764.80 |
| 8 | $15,045.99 | $180,551.88 |
| 9 | $15,594.61 | $187,135.32 |
| 10 | $16,126.77 | $193,521.24 |
| 11 | $16,642.97 | $199,715.64 |
| 12 | $17,143.68 | $205,724.16 |
How it works
MRR growth is not purely additive — it compounds. Each month, your existing MRR base is multiplied by a net factor that captures both the revenue you lose to churn and the extra revenue from expansion (upsells, seat growth). Then new MRR from new customers is added on top. Even a small difference in monthly churn rate compounds into a large gap over 12–24 months, which is why reducing churn is often more powerful than increasing new sales at the same dollar amount.
ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue) is simply MRR × 12 at any given point in the projection. This is the standard SaaS reporting convention because it normalises monthly and annual subscription contracts onto the same scale. Note that projected ARR assumes your monthly rates stay constant — in reality, seasonality, pricing changes, and cohort behaviour will shift these inputs over time. Run the calculator under a pessimistic scenario (higher churn, lower new MRR) alongside your base case to see the range of outcomes.
The time-to-target milestone works by scanning month-by-month until MRR first crosses the target you enter. If the growth dynamics produce a shrinking or stagnating MRR — for example, when churn rate exceeds the combined contribution of new and expansion MRR — the target may never be reached within the projection horizon, and the calculator reports that clearly rather than extrapolating beyond its window. This is intentional: assumptions that seem reasonable today can break down, so a bounded 120-month horizon keeps projections honest.
Frequently asked questions
What is the difference between churn and expansion MRR?+
Churn MRR is the recurring revenue lost each month when customers cancel or downgrade — it reduces your existing base. Expansion MRR (also called net revenue expansion) is the additional revenue earned from existing customers through upsells, seat additions, or price increases — it grows your existing base. Net Revenue Retention (NRR) captures both together: if expansion fully offsets churn, NRR is 100%; above 100% means your existing customers are collectively paying you more each month even before counting new customers. Best-in-class SaaS companies target NRR above 120%.
How accurate are these projections?+
This calculator uses constant monthly rates, which is a simplification. In practice, churn rates vary by cohort age (older cohorts tend to churn less), new MRR fluctuates seasonally, and expansion depends on customer success initiatives. The projection is most useful as a scenario-planning tool: run a base case, a pessimistic case (raise churn by 1–2 points), and an optimistic case (reduce churn, raise expansion) to understand the sensitivity of your growth trajectory to small changes in inputs. Treat the output as a directional planning estimate, not a financial forecast.
Should I use gross MRR churn or net MRR churn (after expansion)?+
This calculator keeps churn and expansion as separate inputs so you can see their individual effect. If you only know your net revenue churn (gross churn minus expansion), you can set monthlyExpansionPct to 0 and enter your net churn rate directly in the churn field. Either approach produces the same net multiplier — the distinction matters most when you want to benchmark your gross churn and expansion separately against industry data, or when optimising which lever (retention vs upsell) gives a better return on investment.